Crypto
05 Nov 2025
Read 14 min
How bitcoin whales selling explained signals $85k risk *
bitcoin whales selling explained warns mass outflows could push BTC toward $85,000 and suggests hedges
Bitcoin tumbled below $100,000 after long-term holders sold roughly 400,000 BTC in a month. Here is bitcoin whales selling explained in plain language: spot selling, not leverage, is pushing prices lower. Options traders hedge toward $80,000. Analysts warn the unwind may last into spring, with risk extending to $85,000.
Bitcoin’s latest drop looks different from the sharp, leverage-driven crash in October. This time, steady selling by long-time holders is pressuring price. Big wallets have been moving coins back to exchanges, taking profits, and reducing risk. That has left fewer buyers to absorb supply and more investors nervous about further declines.
1,000 to 10,000 BTC: “Mega whales.” Their trades can move price.
100 to 1,000 BTC: Large holders. They often follow trend and add liquidity.
Long-term holders: Coins that have not moved for months. They act as “strong hands.”
When whales add to their stacks, supply drops on exchanges. Price finds support. When they sell, supply rises, and bids must grow to hold price steady.
Clear return of whale accumulation, especially in the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort.
Evidence that reactivated supply slows down for several weeks.
Options flows shift from puts to calls near current prices.
Macro relief (lower real yields, calmer dollar), which often supports risk assets.
Positive net inflows into major spot products and funds.
If two or more of these align, the bias can flip from drift-lower to base-and-build.
New capital arrives (fresh buyers, fund inflows, corporate treasuries).
Existing holders stop selling (profit-taking ends, conviction returns).
Prices fall enough to attract value-driven demand.
As this gap narrows, volatility can also decline. That sets the stage for a better trend later.
Long-term holder supply moving back to exchanges.
Net flows for whale cohorts (100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC).
Options put/call activity near $80,000–$100,000 strikes.
Futures open interest and funding rates (still helpful, but less central here).
Sustained whale distribution into thin liquidity pushes price below $90,000.
Global risk-off (stronger dollar, higher real yields) weighs on crypto flows.
Negative regulatory headlines curb institutional allocations near-term.
Reaccumulation by large wallets shows up in on-chain metrics.
Options sellers step in, lowering put premiums and easing downside pressure.
Improved macro tone lifts high-beta assets and draws in fresh buyers.
Long-term holders sold about 400,000 BTC in a month, near $45 billion of supply.
The move is spot-led, with liquidations far below October’s $19 billion spike.
Options hedging clusters around $80,000, signaling caution, not panic.
Analysts see risk of a drawn-out unwind into spring, with a potential floor near $85,000.
Watch whale accumulation, reactivated coins, and options flows for the next turn.
The story is clear: bitcoin whales selling explained why price broke below $100,000 and why rallies keep stalling. Big wallets took profits. Mid-sized buyers paused. Options desks leaned defensive. Until supply and demand rebalance, the market can drift toward $85,000. Patience, risk control, and focus on the right signals will matter most.
bitcoin whales selling explained: what changed since October
The October slide came fast. Futures positions blew up as leverage snapped. Liquidations topped $19 billion. Traders were forced to sell. Prices fell in minutes. The recent weakness is slower and more deliberate. It is led by spot selling, not cascading liquidations. Over the past 24 hours, about $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, far less than in October. Open interest in Bitcoin futures sits lower than the peaks. Options traders now buy puts that target the $80,000 strike. That signals fear of more downside, but it is not panic. Why does this matter? When leverage breaks, the selloff often ends once weak positions clear. When spot sellers control the tape, supply can keep coming for weeks. That can grind price lower, even if each day’s move looks calm.Who the whales are and why they matter
What a whale looks like on-chain
In crypto, a “whale” is a wallet that holds a large amount of Bitcoin. Analysts often track groups by size:Profit-taking after a hot summer
Data shows long-term holders reactivated about 319,000 BTC in the last month, mostly coins held for six to twelve months. Some of those movements are internal transfers. But a meaningful share hit the market as sales. This looks like profit-taking. Prices reached a record a month ago. Many wallets that bought in mid to late summer had gains. They decided to cash in. At the same time, accumulation by the 100–1,000 BTC cohort fell sharply. This group often bridges the gap between retail buyers and giant whales. If they stop buying while mega whales sell, the market loses two key shock absorbers at once.Mega whales set the tone
Earlier this year, mega whales began to sell into strength. Institutional demand tried to absorb the new supply. That tug-of-war kept price choppy and sideways during the summer. After the October crash, broader demand cooled. Some investors are now underwater and prefer to reduce risk. The balance shifted. When more coins flow out from strong hands than flow in to new hands, price bends lower. This is the bitcoin whales selling explained moment in one line: big sellers returned, but big buyers paused.Signals that confirm a spot-led unwind
Reactivated coins and “age” of supply
On-chain metrics track the age of coins that move. When older coins start to move, it often means long-term holders are taking profits or changing stance. The recent spike in reactivated supply from six- to twelve-month holders fits that pattern. This does not scream capitulation. It suggests disciplined selling into strength and then into weakness as momentum fades.Derivatives point down, but with control
Options activity shows rising demand for downside protection. Traders pick strikes near $80,000. That does not guarantee a crash. It does show that professionals expect more chop and lower lows first. Futures leverage stays muted. That reduces the risk of a sudden spiral. It also means rallies may be slower because fewer shorts are forced to cover.Order book dynamics
When spot sellers hit bids day after day, order books thin out. Market makers step back or widen spreads. Price must fall to find the next layer of demand. This grind lower can last until fresh catalysts appear: stronger dip-buying, a macro tailwind, or a clear flush that resets positioning.Price map: why analysts see a path to $85,000
The $100,000 break matters
Dipping below $100,000 broke a key psychological level. It also flipped some momentum signals. Many trend followers use round numbers and recent highs and lows to set rules. Losing $100,000 invited more systematic selling and fewer aggressive bids. The bounce on the next day was modest, which keeps sellers in control for now.The $85,000 “max downside” case
Some analysts, including Markus Thielen of 10x Research, see a maximum downside target near $85,000 for this leg. The view is not for a crash. It is for a drawn-out drift lower, then a base. Why $85,000? It lines up with areas where prior demand stepped in, and where many newer holders would still keep long-term gains, reducing panic risk. It also acknowledges that whales may keep selling into spring.What could break the slide
For the path to change, the market needs one or more of the following:How long could this last?
The six-month glide path
In the 2021–2022 bear stretch, large holders sold more than one million BTC across nearly a year. The current selling wave is smaller so far, but it rhymes. If whales keep pace with recent outflows, the unwind could last into spring. That does not mean straight down. It often means a step pattern: a drop, a bounce, a stall, another drop. Each step redistributes coins from older hands to newer hands at lower prices.Supply, demand, and the “holder gap”
When sellers outnumber buyers, even slightly, price must adjust. The holder gap closes when:Investor playbook for a spot-led drawdown
Position sizing and leverage discipline
Spot-driven markets punish impatience. Avoid heavy leverage. If you trade, use small position sizes. Set hard stops. Protect capital first.Stagger entries and exits
If you believe in the long-term story, do not chase. Consider scaling in with multiple small buys instead of one big order. Use clear levels. If you manage risk, also scale out on bounces.Watch the right signals
Focus on indicators that matter for this phase:Mindset for the grind
Spot-led phases can feel dull, then suddenly sharp. Patience beats prediction. Many strong rallies start when selling slows, not when headlines shout “bottom.”Case study: from record highs to rebalancing
Bitcoin set a record about a month ago. That peak drew in late buyers. When price reversed, some of them went underwater. Long-term holders saw broad gains and began to realize profits. Mega whales kept lightening up. The mid-sized cohort stopped absorbing supply. Options desks priced in more downside risk. With fewer forced liquidations, there was no big one-day flush to reset everything. Instead, the market started to walk down the stairs. This structure has two outcomes. If selling pressure fades, price can form a clean base. If it persists, price bleeds toward the next big demand zone. Right now, the $85,000 area is the marker many watch.Risks and offsets to the bear case
Risks
Offsets
Key takeaways
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FAQ
Q: What caused Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100,000?
A: The recent drop was driven mainly by steady spot selling from long-term holders who offloaded roughly 400,000 BTC, about $45 billion, over the past month. This supply imbalance, rather than leveraged liquidations, pushed price below the $100,000 level.
Q: How is this decline different from October’s crash?
A: Unlike October’s crash, which was driven by cascading liquidations that wiped out roughly $19 billion in forced sells, the current weakness is spot-led with far fewer liquidations (about $2 billion in the past 24 hours). This is a classic bitcoin whales selling explained scenario where long-term holders take profits rather than leverage blowing up positions.
Q: Who are the “whales” referenced in the article and why do they matter?
A: Whales are large wallets that hold significant Bitcoin and analysts often group them as mega whales with 1,000–10,000 BTC, large holders with 100–1,000 BTC, and long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for months. Their buying or selling matters because their moves can meaningfully change exchange supply and sway price direction.
Q: How much Bitcoin was reactivated recently and what does that indicate?
A: About 319,000 BTC were reactivated in the past month, mainly from coins held six to twelve months, and while some movements were internal transfers, much reflected real selling. That pattern indicates profit-taking after summer gains and contributes to the spot-led supply pressure.
Q: What price levels are traders and analysts watching as key markers?
A: Market participants are watching the broken $100,000 psychological level, options puts clustering near the $80,000 strike, and analysts’ downside area around $85,000 cited by Markus Thielen as a potential maximum target. These levels reflect where derivative hedges, demand zones and analyst risk estimates currently align.
Q: How long could this unwind continue according to analysts?
A: Analysts including Markus Thielen warn the unwind could last well into next spring and possibly another six months if selling continues at recent pace, echoing the drawn-out 2021–22 distribution when over one million BTC were sold across almost a year. The path is expected to be a stepwise drift lower rather than a single catastrophic plunge.
Q: What on-chain and derivatives signals should investors track to gauge a turnaround?
A: Investors should watch long-term holder supply moving to exchanges, net flows for whale cohorts (100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 BTC), options put/call activity near $80,000–$100,000 strikes, and futures open interest and funding rates. A slowdown in reactivated supply or a shift from puts to calls and renewed whale accumulation would be signs the selling is easing.
Q: How should investors approach risk during this spot-led drawdown?
A: The article’s investor playbook recommends avoiding heavy leverage, using small position sizes, setting hard stops, and staggering entries and exits rather than chasing prices. Emphasizing patience and risk control is advised since spot-led drawdowns can grind lower for weeks or months before a clear base forms.
* The information provided on this website is based solely on my personal experience, research and technical knowledge. This content should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Any investment decision must be made on the basis of your own independent judgement.
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