Bitcoin’s slide under $113,000 came as U.S. stocks set fresh records, spotlighting a rare split between risk assets. The Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off hinges on whether price can reclaim and hold key levels that separate “correction” from “accumulation.” Watch the short-term holder cost basis near $113,600 and a potential downside magnet around $97,500. A sharp afternoon sell-off pushed BTC back below $113,000 for a second straight session, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched new highs. Tech mega-caps, led by Nvidia approaching a $5 trillion market cap during a major GPU event, drew heavy attention and likely absorbed risk capital. Crypto-related stocks that started green also turned red before the close, with miners-turned-AI infrastructure names and a large crypto financial firm finishing notably lower following a big capital raise. Traders are now asking what comes next, and how to frame the Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off in a market that suddenly decoupled from roaring equities.

Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off: the chart levels that matter

The immediate battleground is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis near $113,600. Analysts have flagged this line as a pivot: when BTC holds above it, market tone tends to shift from correction to accumulation. When it can’t, pullbacks often stretch longer and deeper. Bitcoin is still above its 200-day moving average, which signals the longer trend remains constructive. But price action sits below key cloud-based trend gauges, and that suggests rallies can fade until bulls win back momentum. The U.S. dollar index has also strengthened. A firm dollar often pressures BTC because it tightens global liquidity and makes risk assets harder to bid higher.

Key levels to watch

$113,600 (STH cost basis): A reclaim and daily close above could flip tone back toward accumulation.

$120,000–$122,000: A zone to test whether trend-following sellers defend the cloud and prior breakdown area.

$107,000–$109,000: Interim demand where dip buyers may try to stabilize price.

~$97,500: A lower bound of the current range flagged by analysts as a possible retracement target if $113,600 keeps rejecting.

In simple terms, if BTC regains $113,600 and converts it into support, the market likely moves from “repair” to “rebuild.” If not, the path of least resistance stays sideways to lower, with $97,500 a realistic retest zone.

Momentum, structure, and confirmation

Markets heal in stages. After a sharp October drop, BTC bounced, but it hasn’t proven trend control. You want to see:

Closes back above $113,600 with rising volume.

Progressively higher lows on 4-hour and daily charts.

A break and hold above the cloud on daily timeframes.

Momentum indicators (like RSI) pushing above midline and staying there.

These are classic building blocks that turn a fragile rebound into a durable uptrend. Until they appear, risk of “rallies that fade” remains elevated.

Why stocks soared while crypto slipped

Stocks surged to fresh records, yet Bitcoin lost ground. This split stands out because traders often view BTC as a high-beta risk asset. Several forces can explain the divergence.

AI gravity: Nvidia’s moment and risk rotation

Nvidia rallied strongly as its CEO delivered a keynote at a GPU conference, underscoring its command of the AI narrative. When one growth giant approaches a huge market cap milestone, it can draw flows from across the risk spectrum. Some of that capital likely came out of crypto exposure, at least intraday. Crypto equities told a similar story. Early gains faded as miners and new AI-focused infrastructure plays closed lower. A leading crypto financial firm fell after launching a double-digit billion-dollar capital raise (in local currency terms), a reminder that equity dilution and funding headlines can sap sector sentiment on days when mega-cap tech steals the spotlight.

Stronger dollar, tighter liquidity vibes

A rising dollar index often weighs on Bitcoin. The logic is simple: a stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions, making it more expensive to take risk and reducing non-dollar buying power. When the dollar firms at the same time stocks are rising, it can mean mega-cap winners pull in flows despite a tougher macro background. Crypto, which leans heavily on liquidity cycles, often lags under those conditions.

On-chain signals: short-term holders are the pivot

Short-term holders tend to be more reactive. Their collective cost basis around $113,600 is a simple but powerful gauge. When price holds above this level, these holders are in profit, and they are less likely to panic sell. That steadies the tape and invites deeper-pocketed buyers. When price stays below it, short-term holders feel pressure, and weak hands may keep supply flowing into rallies. This is why analysts framed that level as “pivotal.” It isn’t a magic line. But it is a practical proxy for near-term confidence. The longer BTC dwells below it, the more time bears have to probe lower supports.

Derivatives can amplify the move

Leverage magnifies direction. When price slides into a wall of long positions, liquidation cascades can push it further than most expect. Likewise, bear squeezes can spike price sharply if shorts cluster near obvious resistance. Without citing specific metrics, the principle remains: cleanly reclaiming $113,600 would likely force at least some shorts to cover, while repeated rejections there make long positions fragile.

Scenario map for the next 1–2 weeks

Short-term trading boils down to levels, structure, and discipline. Here are simple, level-driven scenarios consistent with the Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off:

Bullish repair path

Reclaim $113,600 and close above it on a daily candle.

Follow-through toward $118,000–$120,000 with rising spot volumes.

Daily cloud turns from resistance to support; pullbacks hold higher lows.

Setups favor buying dips as long as $113,600 holds as new support.

Choppy range path

Price flips back and forth around $111,000–$114,000.

Breakouts fail and return to range; headlines and macro data trigger fake-outs.

Patience pays: focus on the edges of the range with tight risk.

Bearish extension path

Repeated failures at $113,600 lead to a grind lower.

$107,000–$109,000 offers only temporary relief.

Price drifts toward $100,000 and tests the ~$97,500 range low.

Only a strong reversal with high volume and a reclaim of $113,600 ends the down-leg.

How to manage risk like a pro

No one can predict every tick. But you can control process and exposure. Use simple rules that fit this environment.

Focus on invalidation

If you trade a bounce, define the level that proves you wrong (for example, a clean loss of intraday structure or a return below your entry pivot).

If you fade rallies, define the level that invalidates the short (for example, a daily close back above $113,600 with strong volume).

Position sizing and timeframes

Keep position sizes moderate until daily trend confirms.

Trade fewer, higher-quality setups on higher timeframes to reduce noise.

Avoid revenge trades after sharp intraday reversals.

Spot vs derivatives

Spot positions reduce liquidation risk but can suffer from drawdowns in choppy ranges.

Derivatives offer precision but demand strict stop discipline and respect for funding/fees.

What could flip the script

Several catalysts can change the story quickly from cautious to constructive.

Technical

Daily close above $113,600, then a steady march toward the mid-$120,000s.

Break above the daily cloud and a successful retest from the top side.

Higher lows respected on 4-hour and daily charts, with rising volume.

Macro and sector flows

Softening dollar and an uptick in global liquidity risk appetite.

Rotation out of crowded AI trades into diversified risk, including crypto.

Positive headlines around institutional participation or improved crypto equity funding conditions.

If even one of these tracks, the market may quickly re-rate the Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off from “fragile” to “stabilizing.”

Why this decoupling might not last

Crypto often lags when macro winds shift suddenly. Equity traders can pile into a single mega-cap or theme day after day, while crypto pauses to find footing. But such decouplings rarely persist. As liquidity conditions settle, correlations can creep back. If stocks continue making highs and the dollar cools, BTC could catch up after its technical repair. Conversely, if equities wobble and the dollar stays firm, crypto might probe lower supports before any rebound attempt.

The longer view: structure beats noise

Bull and bear impulses always wrestle for control, and noise often dominates around inflection points. Yet a few steady principles help frame the bigger picture:

Trend, time, and tests

Remaining above the 200-day moving average suggests the broader trend is not broken, even if the short-term picture is cloudy.

Post-sell-off markets need time to rebuild confidence. Expect retests, not straight lines.

Key pivots like $113,600 matter because they reflect the average pain or comfort of sensitive cohorts. If price can hold above, sellers tire faster.

Patience with levels

Impatience breeds poor entries near resistance and weak exits near support.

Let price show you: acceptance above $113,600 opens the door to constructive targets; rejection keeps the focus on $107,000–$109,000 and possibly $97,500.

A note on sentiment

Sentiment flips quickly after sharp moves. Fear rises near obvious supports and fades into resistance. Track what price does at the critical lines rather than how social feeds feel. When technicals and flows agree, conviction grows. When they conflict, smaller size and faster decisions make sense.

Putting it all together

The market handed us a clear map. The short-term holder cost basis near $113,600 is the center line. Reclaim it and hold, and the tape likely improves with attempts toward $118,000–$122,000 and eventually a break above the daily cloud. Fail there repeatedly, and the market may grind to $107,000–$109,000 with risk of a sweep toward ~$97,500 before any lasting recovery. Nvidia’s surge and the broader equity rally showed where capital flowed on the day, but that leadership can rotate. If the dollar cools and liquidity stabilizes, crypto could re-synchronize with risk-on equities. Until then, the prudent approach is simple: respect the levels, size modestly, and demand confirmation before leaning into breakouts. That is the disciplined way to navigate the Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off without guessing tops or bottoms. In conclusion, the Bitcoin outlook after $113k sell-off comes down to one test: convert $113,600 from ceiling to floor. Above that pivot, the case for accumulation grows. Below it, patience and defensive risk management remain the edge while the market searches for a durable low.

(Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/28/bitcoin-sinks-below-usd113k-as-crypto-weakness-defies-s-and-p-500-nasdaq-records)

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